Wireless innovation
Ever since the Internet emerged as a transformational tool of business, the technology industry and its legion of followers have been seeking the Next Big Thing, entrenched in the belief there will be a digital second coming that will elevate our lives.
It is a hope that keeps research and development alive, especially in the sphere of information and biotechnology. Yet rather than an innovation, invention or discovery, it is the concept of achieving access to technology at any time or place that holds the greatest potential for beneficial change, at least in the developed world.
The aspirations for wireless communication technologies, among consumers, industry players, investors and the media, reflect this.
Adoption of the mobile phone, use of SMS and gradually increasing use of multimedia messaging service (MMS) proves beyond doubt we are prepared to embrace communication and information at any time or location. Indeed, we are not just prepared for it, we pay for it.
Excitement has been generated in the last few months about a new, high-speed wireless technology called WiMax. It works in a similar way to mobile phones, using strategically placed nodes or base stations to provide network coverage. The basic distinction is that it is initially designed for data services and throws out a signal of up to 50km in radius.
Stoking the fire of WiMax enthusiasm is Intel, which has announced its next generation Centrino wireless chipset will incorporate not only Wi-Fi technology (wireless fidelity), which underpins all those little “hotspots” sprinkled around the place, but also WiMax.
In the eyes of some, the power of Intel’s endorsement anoints WiMax, or more generically “broadband wireless” technologies, as at least the next big thing to come of age.
This may prove correct but many planets must align before broadband wireless becomes a reality in the mass market, including standardisation, product availability, coverage (a major challenge in the Australian market) and proven business models and sales channels.
As always with wireless technologies, the claims of vendors over peak data rates should be approached with caution.
WiMax in its first iteration will actually be designed for fixed-site computing. It will provide high-speed access for consumers who cannot gain xDSL or cable services because of their location or pair-gain issues on the copper-wire network.
This is already a well-understood market that is being addressed, albeit with sometimes expensive monthly fees of upwards of $80 by service providers for the iBurst mobile wireless technology, and Unwired, a small Sydney-operations that deploys a fixed wireless solution from America’s Navini Networks.
The alternatives in the high-speed wireless world read like a shopping list. IP Wireless has been impressive in Auckland, where it was deployed by Woosh using a 3G-standards compliant technology called TD-CDMA . Then, among several alternatives, is Flarion from the US, cdma2000 1x (with EV DO and from 2006, the EV DV variants) which Telstra is investigating.
High-speed mobile phone access should not be discounted either. Enhanced Data Rates for Global Evolution (EDGE) ” is a GSM evolution supporting similar data rates to those offered by cdma2000 1x. EDGE is currently being rolled out in parts of South-East Asia, But is less likely to make an appearance in Australia given the lack of local commercial interest.
Barring a change of heart by the technical gurus at Intel, WiMax has a future and probably a profitable one. Its first application will be what the telecommunication industry describes as “backhaul” – updating what will be tired Wi-Fi technology at the hotspots. Companies such as Siemens, Alcatel and Alvarion are already onto this.
Basic desktop access will be next, but may require a roof antenna and even a technician to install it – and we all know how expensive that has proven for FoxTel. Gartner estimates self-install, smart antennae will not be around at least until 2007-08.
My colleagues are even more pessimistic about when a fully mobile WiMax offering will turn up supporting high speed handoff between cells. Our research position is a rather depressing 2009 timeframe with a PDA or mobile phone derivative a further 12 months out.
Intel says its WiMax chipset will be in production by 2006, but it will take some time for widespread diffusion of that technology.
It is debatable whether current iterations of broadband wireless will achieve the same rapid path to success as Wi-fi, but the revenues and rewards in the longer term may be much greater.
Like all Next Big Things, they come to those who wait.
Nick Ingelbrecht is a principal analyst at Gartner, specialising in mobile and wireless communications.